07.02.2007

In December of 1990, then-President Turgut Özal was left alone to contemplate an operation into northern Iraq. This event offers insight into who Turkey was actually governed by.

In those days, retired generals were appearing on TV claiming that İsmet İnönü, the second president after Atatürk, made the right decision at the time in handing over Kirkuk and Mosul and Özal was dragging the country into an unpredictable adventure.

Furthermore, they were accusing Özal of serving the interests of the Americans. However, an operation into Kirkuk and Mosul was not a plan backed by the United States, but was in fact one the White House was secretly trying to prevent. And those serving the United States in reality were the ones resisting and fuming at Özal. It was the “military-industrial complex” that was producing and directing the harsh opposition and political campaigns against Özal.

Some 17 years have passed since, a large majority of those favoring an intervention in Kirkuk today consists of those who replied harshly to Özal in the past. Those who obeyed US desires in those days by accusing Özal of being an “Americophile” are today again acting in a way that could play into the hands of the United States. The retired generals who once defied Özal are singing a Kirkuk song now!

We should be able to read between the lines of the US tactic of dragging Ankara into northern Iraq by outwardly establishing Kirkuk to be the main target. This is the trick of “beating the tar out of the grape grower rather than picking the grapes.” They want to send Turkey right to the epicenter of danger, the worst marshland of Iraq. It goes without saying that the United States will resort to any sort of provocation in the region to earn this in the end.

There are two main reasons behind putting the “Northern Iraq Operation” on Turkey’s agenda:

The first is that the United States is trying to cripple our recently established ideal relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia by getting Turkey to intervene in northern Iraq and thereby set the two countries against us. If this turns out to be the case, the United States will not only start acting in Iraq but also in the whole region in a much freer way. One of the most important factors that expedited the developments against US interests in the Middle East is the foundation of the Turkey-Iran working relationship.

The second reason is related directly to Ankara: the returns of a possible northern Iraq operation would be paltry given the present physical conditions of the region, but it would affect the internal balance and help the military sphere to gain more strength. The scope of politics would narrow, and all the steps taken so far in the direction of installing a more civil administration would be ruined.

When the possibility of a northern Iraq operation appeared in the limelight, the Erdoğan-led government approached positively considering the “nationalist votes,” and the leader of the main opposition, Baykal, reciprocated by saying, “We won’t hold your hand, but we would support you.” Both stances were political. They shouldn’t have been expected to serve higher purposes; and that’s what happened. A false Northern Iraq Campaign will not produce any results…

So, what about Kirkuk? Today’s timing and grounds are not remotely suitable; though that doesn’t mean it will continue this way. As we emphasized before: we will witness the gravitation of Iraq toward Ankara in the aftermath of the pull-out of American troops from the country. That is to say, the days when Turkey will reunite with Kirkuk will come!