12.06.2007

The recent dramatic increase in Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) violence against the Turkish security forces has significantly raised tensions in Turkey.

The domestic political atmosphere was already very much strained due to the political crisis that arose around the presidential election. The daily losses Turkey incurs have an enormous toll on our internal peace and the already charged political environment. The news yesterday that two high-ranking officers were killed by an improvised explosive device is going to increase the pressure on the government to act decisively against the threat from both the PKK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of northern Iraq (KDP).

The resurgence of PKK violence has no doubt been possible due to the war in Iraq. In this sense, the United States also shares responsibility. The ill-fated war in the first place, as well as the inability of the US to influence Massoud Barzani -- leader of the autonomous Kurdish region -- on the PKK issue has made PKK operations out of northern Iraq possible. A number of historic circumstances around the March 1, 2003 decision not to allow US troops to launch the invasion of Iraq from Turkish soil have prevented the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) from acting in concert with the US and have allowed the Kurds to become an ally of the US there. The domestic balance and security situation in Iraq is known to all concerned parties. For the US, the Kurds emerged as the only trusted component in Iraq and pushed Turkey aside. Circumstances dictated that Kurds should be favored over a decades-long staunch ally.

The US has been unable to convince Barzani to limit PKK activity on northern Iraqi soil. Barzani may be an irresponsible leader, unwilling to listen to US advice or he may be a shrewd calculator who operates independently. Whatever the explanation -- and at this point it really matters very little -- the damage to Turkish-American relations has been done. It is bound to have an impact for some time to come. I fear that the current Bush administration’s preference for Iraqi Kurds over Turks will have lasting consequences for Turkish-American relations, as well as the delicate balance across the whole region. Unfortunately, Turkey’s long-standing transatlantic ties have been severed carelessly by the US fixation on Iraq. Our once strong relationship has been put in doubt and our region has been altered to such a degree that it will not rest before a major rebalancing takes place. It might take two, five or 10 years, but the US cannot stay in this region forever.The day of a regional reckoning will come. Responsible Kurds need to know that Turks, Iranians, Syrians and non-Kurdish Iraqis will eventually “write the check” to the Kurds. If Barzani and his men truly think that they can get away with an independent Kurdistan that will include Kirkuk, despite regional objections, they will have a rude awakening. If Barzani and his men really believe he will be able to escape the responsibility of allowing the PKK to operate freely in his territory and kill Turkish security forces on a daily basis, they will be proven wrong. Sooner or later, Mr. Barzani will be held accountable.

Also, we need to be clear about defining the threat from northern Iraq. It is not only the PKK that poses a threat to Turkish security. It is also the KDP that is a threat to our security as the KDP harbors, tolerates and assists the PKK to operate in northern Iraq. As long as Mr. Barzani does not deal with the PKK or distance himself from them, he will be equally responsible for every single Turkish soldier being killed in this country. He has repeatedly demonstrated that he does not understand the language of diplomacy. Turkish patience is running out, and it appears we will be left with the only option that remains.