01.12.2006

Who is profiting from the process that began with the occupation of Iraq? Iraq? This question can’t be responded to positively with a clear conscience because the situation is very grave. Instability and insecurity are rampant in Iraq. It is not possible to say that democracy has made any serious progress either. With today’s situation the country is being dragged towards civil war. Ethnic rage is like a grenade with its pin pulled. The radioactive impact of a probable sectarian war is big enough to affect the whole Middle East. Iraq’s people are discouraged, pessimistic and weary. Saddam’s arrest and trial didn’t increase hopes for freedom and democracy. As chaos continues in the country, the hopes of the Iraqi people have become more and more exhausted…

America’s losses during the occupation of Iraq are great. There are many countries in the Middle East looking at events with anxiety. “Will our turn come next?” Even those who until recently were saying, “Saddam should go at any cost,” have now lost hope in America. The Arab-Israeli problem shares a lot of responsibility in this picture. The people of the Middle East accuse the West of acting with prejudice and applying a double standard, and they are even suspicious of those with good intentions.

In spite of all its technological and military might, the U.S. experiencing a new Vietnam syndrome in Iraq is harming America and America’s image. Consequently, it is impossible to say that America is profiting from its invasion of Iraq. The American people’s negative attitude towards the Bush administration in the latest elections was tied to America’s mistakes in its Iraq policy.

Looking at the current situation, Iran is the only country that has profited. On the one hand, Iran has gained great sympathy with the peoples of the Middle East with its anti-America approach, and on the other hand, by playing an influential role in occurring events, Iran has taken steps that will affect Iraq’s future.

It is already clear that Iran, knowing how to penetrate the Shiite groups in Iraq, will be an effective party in the emerging equation. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are Sunni Muslims, and that fact has drawn many Western countries, America in particular, closer to the Shiites. Sympathy for Shiites has replaced fear of an Iran that began with Khomeini.

Actually, neither their prejudices on Sunnism nor their dreams about Shiism were correct. Shiism, rising today in the Middle East under the leadership of Iran and sailing with the wind of anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism, has destroyed the popularity of Wahabiism and opened for itself a new area of sovereignty.

Actually the crux of the matter is not who will profit and who will suffer from the Iraq occupation, but what is important is Iraq’s future; because this future will not only affect Iraq, but the Middle East as a whole.

A civil war in Iraq will not be limited to Iraq! The ethnic ties and sectarian divisions in Iraq are of immediate interest to Iran, Syria and Turkey.

It is unthinkable that in a chaotic situation these countries would not directly or indirectly intervene in events transpiring in Iraq. Under these conditions, American troops remaining in Iraq would be cause for a distressing situation; so would their immediate withdrawal.

In a statement made in Amman, Prime Minister Erdogan said, “We give importance to the Bush-Maliki meeting. Before that I will meet with President Bush at the Riga summit. I will look for an opportunity to discuss this subject. Iraq interests us as a neighboring country.”

It is natural for Erdogan to say this because ethnic enmity is constantly rising in Iraq where 50 people are killed every day. The Shiite-Sunni conflict can reach more terrifying dimensions. If common sense doesn’t reign in Iraq, not only regional countries but the whole world will have to pay the bill.

However, unfortunately the gravity of the situation is not viewed by everyone with the same realism. If this fire spreads to regional countries, the whole world will be disturbed. It is at least necessary to see this danger…