04.12.2006

The United States' 'establishment of democracy' project in the Middle East is not going so well. The occupation of Iraq, which is a part of this project, is nearing its fourth year. The US and British casualty figures are increasing daily, the exact opposite of public support for their policies on Iraq. Worse days seem to lie ahead for both President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair.

The United States' “establishment of democracy” project in the Middle East is not going so well. The occupation of Iraq, which is a part of this project, is nearing its fourth year. The U.S. and British casualty figures are increasing daily, the exact opposite of public support for their policies on Iraq. Worse days seem to lie ahead for both President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair.

No one knows if Bush's Middle East policy, which was given the thumbs down by the American people in the recent congressional elections, will undergo any change in the near future. However, many are certain that there will have to be some changes made in response to the growing chaos in Iraq. The same kind of concerns also weigh in when it comes to discussions on whether there will be a pullout of American troops from the country. What Bush said during his trip to Vietnam gave the impression that he believes he has nothing to learn from history, but still, the larger concerns of the United States show us that they consider the occupation of Iraq to be a necessity for their long-term goals. When one remembers what Saddam Hussein used to say before the U.S. invasion, one should not be surprised at what we see happening in Iraq today. The United States faces a serious insurgency and violence problem in Iraq. The current state of affairs only helps to escalate the clashes. The support given the insurgents by some of Iraq's neighbors, capitalizing on the instability in the country, only makes matters worse.

Meanwhile, the shortsighted policies of the Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq and their decisions based solely on self-interest are causing further anger. The same policies have also caused Turkey to be more sensitive on issues related to the region. On average, 100 people are killed or wounded every day in Iraq. The defeat of Bush's Republican Party in the elections and the pressure applied from both domestic and foreign circles has forced the administration to reconsider its policies in Iraq. All eyes have turned to a report being prepared by the Middle East Work Group that will be published this month.

Most countries want Iraq's territorial integrity to be protected and are cooperating in trying to prevent civil war. On the other hand, the U.S. support given to Kurdish aspirations is a huge factor in the increasing violence in the country. The Kurdish efforts to portray Kirkuk as a Kurdish city are also making things even worse. Would it be possible for the United States to withdraw from Iraq today? There is no clear desire on the part of the Democrats to force the administration to pursue such a strategy because any withdrawal would be seen as a huge defeat. No one knows if the American public would be able to accept this.

The possibility of the United States sitting and negotiating with Syria and Iran on the future of Iraq is an alternative under consideration. What would the reaction of the Jewish lobby and those powers that fear Iran becoming a nuclear power be if this were to happen?

Moreover, no one should forget that the weakness of the Iraqi government and a report by a rights group arguing that Saddam's trial was not fair only feed the flames. Kurdish separatism, the way civilians were treated by U.S. troops in the beginning, the U.S. threats to Iran and Syria all fed the flames as well. Those groups that support the growing insurgency realize they are getting results and do not intend to stop their attacks. Any U.S. withdrawal will only make things worse and will further ruin any chance of stabilizing the country.

The developments in Iraq are strengthening Turkey's hand, and if we are able to exploit the opportunities presented us, U.S.-Turkish relations may develop considerably. Instead of withdrawal, if the U.S. administration lays down a work plan in line with the findings of the work group, things may become clearer for all concerned. Any withdrawal or even decrease of U.S. troops now carries huge risks.