24.12.2006

There is something in Turkey's attitude that I can't comprehend. “Turkey is the center of the world, and that's why Turks are only interested in what happens in Turkey.” For some, the rest of the world should also be as interested in Turkey as we are.

Most of what happens in Turkey is actually “what is said in Turkey.” Who said what and why? Were they justified or not? This is the only thing discussed. No matter what the issue at hand is, we love creating news, opinions and debates over it.

Thank God there was the possibility of the European Union suspending negotiations with Turkey. We finally had the opportunity to discuss something tangible.

The entire world is discussing Iraq, while Turkey couldn't care less.

Apart from a few foreign policy experts (e.g., İlter Türkmen, Semih İdiz, Ferai Tınç, Sami Kohen), experts on the Middle East (e.g., Cengiz Çandar) and the United States (Yasemin Çongar), none of the 20 or so columnists in every newspaper deem it necessary to touch the subject.

Almost none of the columnists who like writing about popular subjects are interested in what is going on in Iraq. It appears Iraq is not worth their time or space.

Some of the readers are very strange, too. “Why are you so interested in the Middle East, anyway? Why don't you write about more popular issues?” they ask.

However, I personally think the Middle East is one of the most important issues for Turkey. I call what is happening in the region the Third World (Division) War.

In 2007, developments concerning Iraq will be the most important issue for Turkey and its future.

Turkey will be affected by the suspended European Union negotiations, and when the decelerating growth coupled with huge current account deficit start affecting the economy, everything from unemployment to investment, consumption to the stock markets will deteriorate.

All these will act as a huge wall that we will crash into when the presidential elections come.

However, the role Turkey will play in the world and the Middle East and internal balances will be shaped by developments in Iraq.

In 2007, a new world order will take shape and Turkey will take its place in it. Turkey will either take active part in this change or will remain passive and accept what comes to it.

When the Iraq Study Group, chaired by James A. Baker and Lee H. Hamilton, released its report, I thought it would dominate the agenda in Turkey. Well, maybe the discussions on the EU prevented it from doing so and delayed the discussions.

But I still thought it would be discussed eventually.

The discussion of this report is important for Turkey finding both its rights and its wrongs, but is also crucial for us to understand the Iraq policies of the Bush administration.

What does Turkey have to say about its role in Iraq?

I accepted the fact that the report does not see Turkey as an ally in efforts to solve the Iraq matter. However, the report also sees Turkey as a possible problem (northern Iraq), a country with relative influence over the Sunnis, and a simple neighbor.

It sees Iran and Syria as more important than Turkey in solving the problem. If I was a U.S. diplomat in Ankara briefing Washington on the issue, I would note: “Turkey does not care about what the report says about it. It will be pleased with whatever it gets.”