28.12.2006

The International Crisis Group, which defines itself as a group founded to prevent clashes around the world, prepares very valuable reports.

Milliyet's Sami Kohen in his column on Dec. 21, 2006 mentioned the group's positive views on the report prepared by the Iraq Study Group, headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton.

I will today cite the group's Kirkuk report, which needs to be analyzed in detail by Turkey. (www.crisisgroup.org-18.07.2006)

The group describes what is happening in Turkey as the “growing Kirkuk War.” It also argues that Turkey could use all diplomatic initiatives, including military intervention, against the Kurdish efforts to take control of Kirkuk.

The report basically says allowing Kurds to dominate the Kirkuk region will further increase the chaos in the region.

The group's reports contain detailed recommendations and the recommendations it makes for Kirkuk are:

1. Postponement of the constitutionally promised general referendum, which needs to be held by December 2007. (The Baker-Hamilton report makes the same recommendation.)

2. Turning the Kirkuk region and the Kirkuk Governor's Office into an autonomous one, independent of the Kurdish federative Region and the Central Federal government.

3. Establishing a political system where Kurds, Arabs, Turkmens and Chaldeans have equal say in how their region is governed.

4. Addressing the consequences of past. This means:

i. Making sure those who were forcefully evicted from the region in the past return to their homes.

ii. Encouraging those who were forcefully settled in the region in the past to return to their homes.

iii. Settling the property violation cases.

iv. Establishing the Kirkuk region in accordance to its former borders and if that's not possible to maintain the present ones.

I believe the recommendations are mostly in sync with the current “Kirkuk policy” of Turkey.

The report also makes certain direct recommendations to Turkey.

1. Working for peaceful solutions and reducing the number of aggressive outbursts.

2. Encouraging trade, especially on petroleum, between Turkey and northern Iraq. Opening of a second border gate between Turkey and Iraq and encouraging investments in northern Iraq.

3. Giving a guarantee that no military force will be sent to northern Iraq and the Habur Border Gate or the oil pipeline will not be closed.

The recommendations to northern Iraq given in the report are as follows:

1. On the Kurdish expectations for Kirkuk, following a more moderate stance that is open to make sacrifices and reaching agreements.

2. The end to the practice of domination of the Kurdish Governor's Office by Kurds, which has been the case since April 2003 and cooperation with the United Nations special representative for more democratic governance.

The northern Iraqi administration sees securing Kirkuk as the most important step for establishing an independent Kurdistan. It is unlikely that it will take these recommendations into account but Turkish determination to follow these recommendations may force it to abide by them.

I constantly express my belief that 2007 will be an “Iraq year.” I also constantly note the developments that support my belief.

Turkey should not begin the new year before developing a realistic northern Iraq policy.

If Turkey can approach northern Iraq with a more moderate tone as mentioned above, it can gain more international support for its own policies.