13.01.2007

I see Bush's new Iraq policy similar to one that is pursued by suicide bombers. He is preparing to take such steps that will ruin both him and the region if they don't produce results.

First, Bush says he doesn't want to withdraw from Iraq before winning the war. However, for him this only means turning Baghdad into a livable city.

Despite all the suggestions and recommendations he is announcing an increase of troops by 21,000 to 17 neighborhoods of Baghdad, instead of withdrawal. It is known that 21,000 additional troops won't fix anything anytime soon. They will both train the Iraqi security forces and transform Baghdad into a secure place. They are planning to give 10,000 Kurdish peshmerga some power just to do this. This decision is very interesting in terms of showing the trust Bush feels towards Kurds.

Bush's other important initiative is to re-employ former Baath Party administrators, who were dismissed after the U.S. occupation.

Another important step taken by Bush is that he has decided to re-instate into office the Baas Party's ex-administrators, who were removed from office right after the invasion. With this decision, the U.S. President admits that he has erred in his previous attitude. This and other decisions demonstrate that President Bush does not intend to give up. He does not agree to withdraw. On the contrary, these alterations of strategy give a very aggressive image of Bush. The U.S. president presents his main goal as preventing the dismemberment of Iraq. He will most probably start the withdrawal phase starting Nov. 2007. Now the question on everyone's mind is whether these measures will help resolve the problems. To be honest, no one knows the answer. It is believed that if the United States does not repeat its previous mistakes, stability can be established starting in 2008.

Even though Bush's statement can slow down the ongoing chaos and decrease the bloodshed, it failed to give the impression that the problem will be resolved for good.

US trying to keep Turkey out of game:

President Bush's statement demonstrates that Washington does not intend to let Turkey get involved, and what is more, that it does not take some of the issues brought forth by Turkey very seriously. When the points that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan referred to in his speech at his party's last group assembly are kept in mind, one realizes that Turkey does not have a place in the Bush Administration's new approach to Iraq. While Washington is well aware that Turkey has been raising its voice, it gives the impression that it prefers to emphasize its collaboration with the Kurds. Even though it may not want the Kurds to take full control of Kirkuk, along with its petroleum and land, it prefers not to stir the Kurds up by getting Turkey involved. Now, about the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK)… The United States does not believe that the PKK problem will be resolved by the cleaning up of Kandil Mountain. It is also apparent that it shies away from the upheaval the displacing of the PKK militants militarily will cause. As a result, it wishes Turkey to take action also and contribute to the joint operation, with, for example, a declaration of a general pardon. On the other hand, Ankara does not agree with such an approach. This is what causes the obstruction. Bush does not intend to get Turkey involved in the relationships with Iran and Syria either. It can be said that this is caused by the different attitude the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has towards Iran and Syria, for it seems that President Bush does not plan to reconcile with Iran and Syria. On the contrary, the impression is that he plans to react adversely. When we evaluate the developments realistically, we can see that Turkey needs to quit drawing red lines. Of course Ankara needs to declare its opinions, what it will accept and what it will refuse. However, it needs to calculate the tone of voice very carefully while doing this. As it will cause great harm to our country if we create an incorrect expectation in the public arena. Assuming a threatening attitude, insisting on the “if you do this, we will retaliate as such” speech and acting on incorrect judgments will not serve anything other than to make matters worse so close to home.